Variable Annuity Fees Linked to the VIX -- Part II
(Nov 2013)
In our last post, we discussed a whitepaper that proposed linking the fees in a variable annuity to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). That paper ran a simple backtest of a variable annuity fee tied to the VIX over the period from 1990-2012, assuming certain parameters, and then compared the result to a fixed fee annuity over the same period. We have replicated their approach between January 1990 and January 2013 and found that not only are the fees and ending account values comparable, but so...
Variable Annuity Fees Linked to the VIX -- Part I
(Nov 2013)
We've discussed the CBOE Volatility Index -- known as the VIX-- many times before. Essentially, the VIX is a very complex calculation of the expected future variance of the S&P 500 (see the full calculation methodology), and is popularly known as the 'investor fear gauge'. The VIX is not a tradeable asset, but there are VIX options and futures contracts, and those contracts serve as the basis for several VIX-related exchange-traded products (TVIX, XIV, VXXto name a few). The VIX is very...
How Does VolDex Stack Up to the VIX?
(Nov 2013)
We've talked a lot about the idea of using volatility to hedge equity exposure. The basic finding, from our research work and that of others, is that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hedges the S&P 500 fairly well. Unfortunately, the VIX is not investable, but is a complicated calculation based on a large strip of options contracts -- i.e., contracts of varying moneyness. Proxies for the VIX, such as rolling VIX futures strategies, are much worse hedges and have a number of problems that make...
Athlete-Backed Securities and Credit Risk
(Nov 2013)
The financial media has been abuzz about Fantex, a brokerage firm that is offering investments linked to the earnings of professional athletes. Their first offering was linked to 20% of the future earnings of Houston Texans running back Arian Foster, and the second was for a 10% interest in the future earnings of San Francisco 49ers tight end Vernon Davis.*At first, the plan was met with some skepticism (and some ridicule), which was only magnified when last Sunday both Foster and Davis...
Structured Product Fees and Credit Risk
(Nov 2013)
Kevin Dugan noted in the April edition of Bloomberg's Structured Notes Brief that "Citigroup collected the highest average fees in the first quarter [of 2013] among the 10 biggest underwriters of U.S. structured notes." This got us wondering, is there any relationship between the credit quality of the underwriter and the fees the underwriter collects? If investors truly understood credit risk, issuers with higher credit risk would presumably have to structure products with lower fees to...
'Tailored' Exchange Traded Funds
(Nov 2013)
Issuers of new exchange traded funds (ETFs) have a problem: how to attract enough investment to keep the fund alive. ETFs have a relatively high turnover rate, and many of the funds that fail simply never gained significant assets under management. Also, if the fund is not traded frequently, it is likely to have a wide bid-ask spread, further reducing investor interest.
One solution that a few ETF issuers have recently adopted involves building ETFs with a particular customer in mind. Back in...
SLCG Research: Structured Product Indexes
(Nov 2013)
Most research on structured products focuses on what is known as initial date mispricing -- the difference between what a product costs and how much it is worth, as of the issue date. If you look at any of our structured product reports (let's take this reverse convertible, for example), you can see that the product was issued at a price of $1,000, but that the present value of its resulting cashflows only comes out to $960.40. The difference, $39.60 or 3.96%, represents an expected loss to...
The Consequences and Implications of TIC Investments
(Nov 2013)
The research we have outlined all this week strongly suggests that TIC interests are exceptionally poor investments. We have focused our posts on what a thorough due diligence on the TICs should have revealed at the time of issuance. But you may be wondering, what happened to these TICs? What sort of returns did investors receive?
To our knowledge, there is no retrospective study of TIC returns. But in our experience, the vast majority of TIC properties suffered significant impairments during...
Conflicts of Interest in TIC Investments
(Oct 2013)
We have been discussing the value of TICs from a financial standpoint, but like most private placement investments, there are many other factors to consider than just the numbers. TICs have a wide array of problematic features that retail investors might not think to look for.
For example, most TICs require unanimous consent of all investors for major decisions regarding refinancing or selling the property. A TIC can be sold to up to 35 investors, making unanimous consent extremely difficult....
A Look Into the TIC Industry
(Oct 2013)
So far, we've discussed some of the concerns we have with TIC investments and shown how to use discounted cash flow analysis to value a TIC interest with our handy spreadsheet. But you might be asking, just how prevalent are these concerns across all TICs?
To answer that, we examined 194 sets of offering documents for TICs sold from 2004-2009. This totaled $2.2 billion in equity, which amounts to approximately 19% of all equity issued by TICs in that period, and included properties from 32...
